Payroll Employment Down 36,000; Unemployment Rate Steady at 9.7 Percent

In February, payroll employment fell by 36,000. This followed a downwardly revised decline of 26,000 in January (previously -26,000). This downward revision however, was more that counteracted by an upward revision in November from a loss of 150,000 to a loss of 109,000. Though job losses are continuing, the rate of loss is clearly slowing down and modest increases in payrolls are likely to begin in coming months.

The decline in payrolls was primarily due to a loss of construction jobs, which shed 65,000 over the month. The large snow storms over the month that hit the South and East Coast likely helped drive up construction jobs losses. Service sector jobs rose by 24,000 driven by the private sector. Public sector payrolls declined by 18,000.

Despite continued job losses, the unemployment rate which is measured by a different survey, remained steady at 9.7 percent. Due to the smaller sample size of the unemployment survey, it tends to be more volatile and single month changes often are less meaningful than a multiple month trend. The labor force participation rate, which had fallen sharply for months hitting a 24 year low in December as more workers likely became discouraged rose for the second straight month by 0.1 percent. Over the past two months over 450,000 people rejoined the workforce. As payrolls begin to improve, it is likely that many discouraged workers rejoin the labor force and this will be a damper on lowering the unemployment rate.

	Feb	Jan	Dec	Nov	Oct	Sep
Payroll Change (000s)	-36	-26	-109	64	-224	-225
Goods Producing	-60	-53	-54	-33	-131	-121
Services	24	27	-55	97	-93	-104
Unemployment Rate	9.7	9.7	10.0	10.0	10.1	9.8
Labor Force Participation R.	64.8	64.7	64.6	64.9	65.0	65.1

10.03.05 (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)

Payroll Employment Down 20,000; Unemployment Rate Down to 9.7 Percent

In January, payroll employment fell by 20,000. This followed a downwardly revised decline of 150,000 in December (previously -85,000). This downward revision however, was mostly counteracted by an upwardly revised gain of 64,000 in November (previously 4,000) Though job losses are continuing, the rate of loss is clearly slowing down and modest increases in payrolls are likely to begin in coming months.

The decline in payrolls was primarily due to a loss of construction jobs, which shed 75,000 over the month. Service sector jobs rose by 40,000 driven by the private sector. Public sector payrolls declined by 8,000.

Despite continued job losses, the unemployment rate which is measured by a different survey, fell 0.3 point to 9.7 percent. Due to the smaller sample size of the unemployment survey, it tends to be more volatile and single month changes often are less meaningful than a multiple month trend. The labor force participation rate, which had fallen sharply for months hitting a 24 year low as more workers likely became discouraged, rose slightly by 0.1 point.

Also of note is that, in this survey, annual revisions were included for the year ending in March 2009. Total payrolls were revised downward by 986,000 for the period. Total job losses therefore total 8.4 million since the beginning of the recession.

	Jan	Dec	Nov	Oct	Sep	Aug
Payroll Change (000s)	-20	-150	64	-224	-225	-211
Goods Producing	-60	-54	-33	-131	-121	-130
Services	40	-96	97	-93	-104	-81
Unemployment Rate	9.7	10.0	10.0	10.1	9.8	9.7
Labor Force Participation R.	64.7	64.6	64.9	65.0	65.1	65.4

10.02.05 (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)