John Roberts

I had been led to believe that the Christian Right, which believes -- with good reason -- that it is responsible for re-electing George Bush, would insist that Bush's nominee for the Supreme Court be a sure vote on all the hot-button issues that have energized the CR lo these many years, especially Roe v. Wade. They bared there teeth when Alberto Gonzales' name came up, warning the Administration against nominating someone with unproven views on these issues (Alberto Gonzales is Spanish for David Souter, went the refrain). The puzzling thing about the Roberts nomination, however, is how united the CR is behind his nomination, despite the fact that there is so little evidence in the public domain about his views on Roe v. Wade and the other hot button issues. It's especially telling that I have found not a single conservative commentator (and I've been scouring the internet for them) who questions Roberts' nomination. Perhaps the CR simply knows something that the rest of us don't; are there memos circulating in CR circles in Roberts' hand making clear his position on certain issues? did Karl Rove make some phone calls to Pat Dobson et al. assuring them that in private conversations Roberts had assured him that he would vote to overturn Roe? Neither of these seem plausible. So what gives? I'll put forth two crazy ideas:



(1) The fact that Bush made a comparatively non-controversial nomination (think of some of the nutcases he could've nominated who would have raised the prospect of a filibuster) is a result of his currently weak political position. His Social Security Reform Road Show crashed and burned; Iraq is crashing and burning; his poll numbers are in the low 40's. In this environment he can't serve up another Bolton. He plays it safe, goes for consensus, scores an easy win to stabilize his political fortunes.



(2) The CR was lobbied strongly, after their outburst over the possibility of Gonzales being nominated, to support the president. They have complied faithfully. But in the Senate Hearings, Roberts will be forced to make his position on Roe, gay marriage, and other issues explicit. I'm guessing he will reveal himself to be a conservative in the true sense of the term -- one who has a great deal of respect for judicial precedent, for creeping, evolutionary change, and not at all a radical in the Scalia-Thomas mold. Then I predict we'll hear the squeals of betrayal from the religious right. If the Roberts nomination implodes, I predict the impetus comes from the CR, not the Democrats.



You heard it hear first.