Pages

Bernanke's Bubble Laboratory (from the WSJ)

There's a great article on the front page today's Wall Street Journal titled "Bernanke's Bubble Laboratory" about three economists at Princeton (Harrison Hong, Wei Xiong, and Markus Brunnermeier) who were hired by Bernanke prior to his becoming Fed Chief. They do research on market bubbles.

This one's a keeper, and will probably end up being discussed in a lot of investment and markets classes. It does a pretty good job of laying out some of their research. Here are a smattering of things these three have found that are discussed in the article:
  • Major innovations (or big changes) like the rise of the Internet in the mid/late 1990s and the recent credit innovations cause large disagreements between investors about fundamental valuations. Difficulties and costs associated with shorting overvalued stocks allows the most bullish investors to drive prices.
  • In markets with fewer shares available (like China's A/B shares markets), optimists can really push the prices up
  • Skeptics that might drive prices back down won't move in a booming market until they're pretty sure other skeptics will also be on board. So, when the "pessimists" finally start moving, prices can drop much more quickly than they rose.
All in all, a worthy piece, and one that's digestible by people without a graduate degree in finance. Read it here (pay subscription may be required).

Gotta go - classes are done, grades have been handed in, and I have CFA to study for and my own research to work on. It may not be focused on bubbles, but I still like it...

0 comments:

Post a Comment

  • Stiglitz the Keynesian... Web review of economics: Stigliz has an article, "Capitalist Fools", in the January issue of Vanity Fair. He argues that the new depression is the result of:Firing...
  • It's Never Enough Until Your He... Web review of economics: Aaron Swartz quotes a paper by Louis Pascal posing a thought experiment. I wonder if many find this argument emotionally unsatisfying. It...
  • Michele Boldrin Confused About Marx... Web review of economics: Michele Boldrin has written a paper in which supposedly Marxian themes are treated in a Dynamic Stochastic Equilibrium Model (DSGE). He...
  • Negative Price Wicksell Effect, Pos... Web review of economics: 1.0 IntroductionI have previously suggested a taxonomy of Wicksell effects. This post presents an example with:The cost-minimizing...
  • Designing A Keynesian Stimulus Plan... Web review of economics: Some version of this New York Times article contains the following passage:"A blueprint for such spending can be found in a study financed...
  • Robert Paul Wolff Blogging On Books... Web review of economics: Here Wolff provides an overview of Marx, agrees with Morishima that Marx was a great economist, and mentions books by the analytical...
  • Simple and Expanded Reproduction... Web review of economics: 1.0 IntroductionThis post presents a model in which a capitalist economy smoothly reproduces itself. The purpose of such a model is not to...
  • How Individuals Can Choose, Even Th... Web review of economics: 1.0 IntroductionI think of this post as posing a research question. S. Abu Turab Rizvi re-interprets the primitives of social choice theory...