Case-Schiller Trends Show Winners, Losers, and Cities to Watch

Yesterday the Case-Shiller Housing Index reported its 9th consecutive monthly increase; home prices rose 0.3% from December to January. The increase in this widely-reported composite index masks the recovery – or lack thereof – in individual cities. The recovery in most markets peaked in late summer of last year. From this point forward the recovery has varied depending on the region.

Markets with the biggest bubbles – which were the first to enter steep price declines – are continuing to recover, as deal-seekers create upward price pressure in these markets. Those with little to no bubble are also continuing to recover. However, a number of urban areas have lost steam since the late summer appreciation and have returned to price declines. Growth in a third group of cities has weakened considerably over the past months; these cities may experience declines in the near future. Miami is an exception; declines have weakened and growth is expected in the near future.

All numbers are seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent changes.

Winners – Markets with Large Bubble or No Bubble Continue to Recover
Los Angeles	posted its strongest increase (1.8%) since October 2005.
San Diego	has reported growth near or above 1% for the past seven months.
Las Vegas	after 32 months of decline, the city has posted three months of modest gains, with a 0.3% increase in January.
Phoenix	reported eight straight months of increases, seven of which were near or above 1%.
Tampa	after four months of weakening declines, the market posted a gain of 0.5% in January.
Minneapolis	after five months of weakening increases, growth jumped from 0.3% in December to 0.7% in January.
Cleveland	after declines in four of the five previous months, the market posted 0.7% growth in January.
Losers – Some Urban Areas Are Losing Steam
Atlanta	growth has been flat or negative for the past five months. -0.5% in January was the largest decline since March 2009.
Chicago	declines of around 1% for the past four months.
New York City	after a short-lived four-month recovery last summer (following 25 months of declines) the market has posted declines over the past five months.
Charlotte	after a year of declines mostly under 1%, the market posted 3 months of essentially flat growth. The index turned negative again in January at -0.1%.
Portland	modest increase in six of last seven months, but turned negative again in January at -0.5%.
Seattle	after three months of small growth (0.2% to 0.3%), the market fell 0.6% in January.
Watch List – Markets in Transition Show Questionable Growth
San Francisco	still posting gains, but at an increasingly weaker pace since July 2009.
Denver	growth has slowed to 0.0% and 0.1% in the past two months from as high as 1% in August and June.
Washington DC	growth has weakened from 1.3% - 1.5% from June through August to 0.2% in January.
Boston	after two months of declines, prices increased 0.6% in November but growth has since diminished to 0.3% in January.
Dallas	after a 0.9% growth in November and 0.2% growth in December, the index declined 0.3% in January, its first decline since September.
Detroit	after solid growth of around 1% from August through October, the market posted a decline then near flat growth the past three months.
Miami	declines have weakened over the past three months from -0.5% in October to -0.1% in January as the market trends toward increases in coming months.