Countdown to rejection

On July 25 I proposed that (1) Pres. Bush's nomination of John Roberts to the Supreme Court rather than an ideologue is a result of political weakness, and (2) the Right will turn against his nomination before the Left does. I closed saying "You heard it here first". Well, if you had the online subscription to the New Republic (I don't) you would have heard #1 first in Ryan Lizza's column (it's in the Aug. 1 print edition) rather than my post. He shares my analysis in #1 precisely, but doesn't go so far as my prediction #2.

As for my prediction #2. The first cracks in the conservative wall of support for Roberts have, apparently, appeared. Fred Barnes writes

"More than any decision in Bush's second term, conservatives around the country have been focused on what he'd do when faced with a Supreme Court vacancy. Their hope was for a demonstrably conservative nominee with a streak of daring. In Roberts, they didn't get one, at least from all appearances... Social conservatives were hoping for more. No doubt they'll line up in support of Roberts when Democrats like Schumer and groups such as People for the American Way begin to attack him. But they dream of the day when there are five votes on the court to reverse the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision, which legalized abortion. Now there are only three. Is Roberts likely to join a anti-Roe bloc on the court? Probably not."

Ann Coulter compares Roberts to another nominee once thought to be a solid conservative choice, David Souter.

"Roberts would have been a fine candidate for a Senate in Democratic hands. But now we have 55 Republican seats in the Senate and the vice president to cast a deciding vote — and Son of Read-My-Lips gives us another ideological blind date...Republicans are desperately trying to convince themselves that Roberts will be different because they want to believe Bush wouldn't let us down on the Supreme Court... Bush said "Trust me," and Republicans trust him. It shouldn't be difficult for conservatives to convince themselves that Roberts is our man. They've had practice convincing themselves of the same thing with Warren, Brennan, Blackmun, Stevens, O'Connor, Kennedy and Souter. "

Stay tuned for news of more defections. I predict that in the Senate, Oklahoma's Tom Coburn is the first to come out against Roberts.