Hope springs eternal

Packers are 5-8. In the NFC, setting aside the likely division winners, the leading wildcard contenders are the NY Giants, Philadelphia, and Atlanta at 7-6, Minnesota and Carolina at 6-7, and St. Louis at 5-8. Suppose the Packers win out against Detroit, Minnesota, and Chicago. Ok, stop laughing for a minute and consider the consequences:

- Minnesota would end up at 8-8 at best and lose the tiebreaker to the Pack. They're out.
- St. Louis beat the Packers earlier in the season, so they must lose at least one game to end up 7-9. Assume that happens. They're out.
- If Carolina loses one game, they finish 8-8 with a conference record of 6-6 in the best case for them (i.e. if they lose to Pittsburgh, an AFC team, and beat Atlanta and New Orleans in the NFC). The Packers, with a conference record of 7-5, win the tiebreaker. Carolina is out.

Now comes the hard part. Philadelphia beat Green Bay during the season, so will win any tiebreaker. Therefore unless Philadelphia loses all of its games it beats the Packers out for a wild card spot. Suppose Philadelphia wins at least one game. Then the Packers must beat out the Giants and Atlanta for the final wildcard spot. If Atlanta loses two of its remaining games (v. Dallas, Carolina, and Philadelphia) they end up 8-8 with a 6-6 conference record. They're out. So now the New York Giants are the only team standing in our way. If the Giants lose two (against Philadelphia, New Orleans, and Washington) they end up 8-8 with a 7-5 conference record. This would tie them with the Packers, and we go to the next tiebreaker, which is... What?

Ok, but suppose Philadelphia, New York, Atlanta, Carolina, Minnesota, St. Louis, and Green Bay all end up at 8-8. Who gets the two wild card spots?

My brain hurts. Time to get back to exam grading.