Friedman units: the slippery slope in Iraq

We're told we need to give this surge thing a chance, that, for example,

"the US has six months to win the war in Iraq - or face a Vietnam-style collapse in political and public support that could force the military into a hasty retreat."[Advisors to General Petraeus quoted in the Guardian Unlimited, February 27, 2007.]

So you think, all right, let's give this thing another six months, and then decide whether to abandon ship. But six months comes and goes, and some other official or pundit declares that we need to give it another six months, and so on and so on, and pretty soon we're staring at the fourth anniversary of this train wreck (as Frank Rich put it in Sunday's NY Times).

I came across an analysis of this phenomenon which coins the term "Friedman Unit," equal to six months, in reference to Thomas Friedman's repeated statements that the next six months will tell us whether we've won the war or lost it. I find this humorous, in a stomach-churning sort of way:

"The next six months in Iraq... are the most important six months in U.S. foreign policy in a long, long time." (Friedman, November 30, 2003)

"What I absolutely don't understand is just at the moment when we finally have a UN-approved Iraqi-caretaker government made up of – I know a lot of these guys – reasonably decent people and more than reasonably decent people, everyone wants to declare it's over. I don't get it. It might be over in a week, it might be over in a month, it might be over in six months, but what's the rush? Can we let this play out, please?" (Friedman, June 3, 2004)

"What we're gonna find out... in the next six to nine months is whether we have liberated a country or uncorked a civil war." (Friedman, October 3, 2004)

"Improv time is over. This is crunch time. Iraq will be won or lost in the next few months. But it won't be won with high rhetoric. It will be won on the ground in a war over the last mile." (Friedman, November 24, 2004)

"I think the next six months really are going to determine whether this country is going to collapse" (Friedman, December 18, 2005)

"I think that we're going to know after six to nine months whether this project has any chance of succeeding" (Friedman, January 23, 2006)

I think we are in the end game. The next six to nine months are going to tell whether we can produce a decent outcome in Iraq." (Friedman, March 2, 2006)

"we're going to find out... in the next year to six months - probably sooner - whether a decent outcome is possible" (Friedman, May 11, 2006)

Time's up, Tom!