October employment report

Today's employment report for October is the last one before our presentation on the 15th. The latest data:

Unemployment down to 4.4%.
Payroll employment up 98,000 in October (+120,000 is amount of new jobs needed to keep up with growing population.
Payroll employment for September now estimated at +148,000 and for August +230,000 (these are upward revisions of the BLS's September estimates, which put employment growth at +51,000 in September and +188,000 in August).
Employment-population ratio is 63.3 (seasonally adjusted) in October, up from 62.8 in October 2005.

The bottom line: judging from the "headline" data, this is a very positive report. Since January the economy has created 1.3 million new jobs, about 146,000 per month; since October 2005, 1.9 million have been created or about 164,000 per month. We'll have to see what others with more time on their hands make of the details.

So what do we make of this confluence of events: employment is up, GDP growth has fallen in two consecutive quarters, productivity is flat?