Iraq's constitution

According to an article in this morning's NY Times, Iraq's Kurdish and Shiite leaders surreptitiously modified rules for the referendum that is to take place on October 15 on the new constitution that make it virtually certain the constitution will pass. Under the old rules, if two-thirds of the votes cast in three provinces opposed the constitution, the referendum would fail; under the new rules, if two-thirds of registered voters in three provinces vote no, the referendum fails. Since turnout is likely to be low in the Sunni areas, there's almost no way the referendum will fail.

According to the article, "The move prompted Sunni Arabs and a range of independent political figures to complain that the vote was being fixed." A natural reaction. The article states further that "The rule change could prove a serious embarrassment to American officials in Iraq, who have spent recent weeks struggling to persuade Sunni Arabs to vote for the constitution and even trying to broker last-minute changes that would make it more palatable to them... There were indications from knowledgeable diplomats that the United States, too, was unhappy with the development and hoped it would be modified."

This I don't understand. The only way we're getting out of Iraq in the near future is if the constitution is approved, and a new government is installed in January. If the constitution fails, the best case scenario is that we stay for another five years while we negotiate a new one. The worst case scenario involves civil war and helicopters plucking American diplomats off of rooftops. Of all the terrible things going on in Iraq right now, a change in the interpretation of the ambiguous phrase "The general referendum will be successful and the draft constitution ratified if a majority of voters in Iraq approve and if two-thirds of voters in three or more governorates do not reject it" in Iraqi election law ranks way down the list. The change seems to me to be on a par with actions taken by the election commissioners in Ohio in the 2004 election.

So let's rig this referendum and be done with it. The Sunnis will not be mollified. The best we can hope for is an elected Shiite-dominated government restrained a bit by the Kurdish parties and forced by the prospect of impending civil war (and helped along, one would hope, by a commitment on the part of the U.S. to get out quickly and leave the Iraqis to their own devices) to negotiate with the Sunnis under the new constitution.